More than 60 percent of Romanian companies do not expect to match their 2019 revenues until 2022, while 15 percent forecast a return to 2019 levels in 2021, according to a survey conducted by Moneycorp Romania. In other words, the economic recovery business owners are eyeing will be asymmetrical. (via Ziare)
According to the second edition of the Moneycorp Economic Barometer, 63 percent of the 1,000+ companies surveyed predict that the economic recovery will follow a “K” pattern, while 15 percent expect a U-shaped or W-shaped recovery. Only 7 percent foresee the best-case scenario for the COVID-19 crisis: that their business will see a V-shaped recovery.
With COVID-19 vaccines already on the horizon, the global economy and, implicitly, the Romanian economy, will gradually overcome the economic crisis triggered by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
Access to European funds, working capital, and investment grants, combined with beneficial tax measures, will be critical for 2021, especially as Romania has secured roughly EUR 80 billion from the EU Recovery Fund, which aims to foster economic recovery in countries severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The crisis has significantly affected revenues, 64 percent of the surveyed business owners say. The main consequences of the health crisis impacting sales have been the rising cost of delivery and logistics (mentioned by 48 percent), an increase in average time to collect invoices (43 percent), operational efficiency issues (37 percent), human resource management issues (33 percent) and total halt in activities during lockdown (31 percent).
When asked about the exchange rate forecast for the end of 2021, 67 percent of companies expect a EUR/RON exchange rate of 4.95-5.00, 16 percent see the euro above the level of RON 5, and only 17 percent expect a level below RON 4.95. Regarding the US dollar, 56 percent expect the dollar to be at RON 4.20-4.30 by the end of 2021 and 18 percent at RON 4.10-4.20, while 13 percent foresee that the American currency will exceed RON 4.30.
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