Romanian research shows three coronavirus scenarios

Romania’s Center for Innovation in Medicine, together with medical news site Raportul de Gardă, published research on Monday showing three scenarios of the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic, with the most optimistic forecast predicting that the number of cases will peak around mid-May, well within the capacity of the healthcare system.

The forecast was based on the methodology described by an article in medical journal The Lancet, which in turn began with coronavirus data gathered in China.

According to the ideal scenario – supposing that Romanians fully abide the social distancing measures, thereby limiting the spread of the disease – the number of cases will peak between May 1 and 20, at around half of the healthcare system’s capacity and bottom out towards the end of August. (The number of cases in this scenario is represented by the light blue part of the graph pictured above, with the red dotted line indicating the capacity of the healthcare system.)

In the “average” scenario – wherein social distancing measures are somewhat effective (yellow) – the disease is likely to peak between July 1-20, just about exhausting the healthcare system capacity.

The worst case scenario (dark blue) shows the number of cases peaking between June 1-20 at more than twice the capacity of the healthcare system. But the worst news is that based on a series of factors, the research shows that the infection rate will reach 60 percent.


Title image: Three scenarios of the coronavirus evolution in Romania. (source: raportuldegarda.ro)


Author: Dénes Albert